The Potential of a 'Hot War' Between the U.S. and Russia First off, "future warfare" is already here. The audio-visual scenario is called "Plan A" and it shows how devastating a nuclear war would be. Ukrainian servicemen patrol near the chemical plant in Avdeevka, a town just north of the city of Donetsk, on June 20. Russia depends on Iranian airspace for its flight corridors into Syria, and reportedly is prepared to support Iranian ground troops aligned with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It's a unique battlespace, and the Americans who have provided training to Ukrainian forces are eager to collect intelligence about the Russians' new mode of combat. This Is What a Nuclear War Between the U.S. and Russia Could Look Like Fires generating soot could block sunlight, possibly for decades, causing global cooling and shortening growing seasons, causing worldwide food insecurity.. It might seem like the war in Ukraine is slipping from the radar of the world's media, implying it has reached stalemate and ground to . We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we back. "The simulation was also supported by data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict. Scientists at Princeton University decided to develop this potential scenario using "independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets." There'd be attempts to "blind" the other by knocking out communications, including satellites, or even cutting the vital undersea cables that carry data. The current situation in Ukraine carries some risk of nuclear escalation from misunderstanding or miscalculation. Meaning what, in practice? The intervention threatens to upset Putins chessboard and injects a new force into the conflict that could beat Russias army in the field. What Would a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Look Like? What War With Russia Would Look Like - The Burning Platform Have your say in our news democracy. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. "As far as one can tell, this is the most serious crisis with a potential nuclear dimension involving Russia and the United States/NATO since the end of the Cold War, even if the risk of a nuclear war is still considered 'small'as many analysts would argue," Alex Glaser, one the creators of Plan A, told Newsweek. The result: Russia is unexpectedly re-emerging as America's chief military rival. For now, Obama shows no signs of conceding to Russian control the regions Ukraine has controlled for decades. But while Russia's conventional forces are less impressive than its nuclear forces, there are specific conventional areas where the Russians excel among them aircraft, air defenses, submarines,. But before you freak out and assume this is the world's fate, the chance of a nuclear global war is fairly unlikely. But it has not yet provided any offensive weaponry and ammunition, and it has not threatened military action against Russia. What does Russia's atomic arsenal look like? Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings. Cities are not targeted as population centers, but buildings, complexes, and other facilities inside them would be destroyed without mercy. Russia counterattacks with missiles launched from silos, submarines, and road-mobile vehicles. Such an attack would likely kill no more than 20 million Americans and leave much of the country intact. Russia's current condition militarized, isolated, corrupt, dominated by the security services and hemorrhaging talent as hundreds of thousands flee abroad to escape service in a horrific war. So not just the military but societies overall will be a prime target in future conflict.". Russia has a very diverse atomic arsenal, which allows it to launch attacks using land, sea and air delivery platforms: this is the so-called. The base will help secure Russia's longtime naval support facility at the Syrian port of Tarus, a key to the Russian military's ability to maintain and project power into the Mediterranean. Tamara Patton, Moritz Ktt, Alex Glaser, Alex Wellerstein, Bruce Blair, Sharon Weiner, Zia Mian, Jeff Snyder, SCOTUS Now Just Another Congressional Committee, Secret Chinese Police Stations in Europe Are 'Tip of the Iceberg', Trump's Attorney Just Blew Carroll Rape Case, King Charles Says Royals Require 'Acting Ability', Ukraine Will Regain 'Significant Territory' From Russia, Florida GOP Paves the Way to Help Ron DeSantis Challenge Trump. It would likely involve more than 3,000 warheads used by both sides, killing well over 100 million Americans and Russians. What Victory Will Look Like in Ukraine. . Putins Russia, seeing Ukraine as alone and vulnerable, decided to attack. I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require sophisticated air-to-air capabilities. VideoThe secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure, LGBT troops take love for Eurovision to front line, Why an Indian comedian is challenging fake news rules, What Europe's royals could teach King Charles. What would a Russian assault on Ukraine look like? The counterforce scenario examines what might happen if Russia attacked Americas nuclear arsenal with its own in an attempt to neutralize Americas nuclear-capable bombers, submarines, and land-based missiles. U.S. strategic early warning forces abruptly detect SS-19 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), each loaded with a nuclear-armed Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, launched from silos near Orenburg, Russia. The greatest concern for Russia in this scenario would be how the Ukrainian military and police would respond. Toe to toe, a conventional war between the U.S. and Russia would be no contest. It really doesnt make much difference, because there would be hardly anyone left in the United States in a position to notice. Those that survive would be left without power, medical care, communications, and viable food and fuel distribution networks. In effect, the Russians could challenge the air superiority maintained even taken for granted by the U.S. over large swaths the Middle East for more than 20 years. These five simmering disputes pose the greatest risk of erupting into "World War III" in 2023. Video, The secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure, MasterChef Australia host Jock Zonfrillo dies, US principal visits David sculpture after nudity row, Adidas sued by investors over Kanye West deal, UK chip giant Arm files for blockbuster share sale, US bank makes last ditch bid to find rescuer, Pope urges Hungarians to 'open doors' to migrants. The war game is notable because of the . The future of the Ukraine conflict is unclear. "We've got a ton of experience in low-intensity warfare, counterinsurgency warfare, whereas a bulk of the Ukraine experience is facing a 21st-century, near-peer adversary," said Army Lt. Col. Michael Kloepper, commander of the U.S. Army's 2nd Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade, which recently began its third rotation into Ukraine to train that nation's military forces. ", Ukrainian serviceman patrol near the chemical plant in Avdeevka, Donetsk region, on June 20, 2015. He is a former Military Times Pentagon reporter and served as a Middle East correspondent for the Stars and Stripes. A war between NATO and Russia would be tantamount to World War 3. Russia on June 20 slammed the EU's extension of sanctions over its annexation of Crimea as "blackmail" and vowed it would not be pressured into returning the peninsula to Ukraine. For months, there has been . by TNI Staff Here's What You Need To Know: Russia would need to size its invasion. Indeed, the Pentagon's senior leaders are asking questions that have been set aside for more than 20 years: Make no mistake: Experts agree that the U.S. military's globe-spanning force would clobber the Russian military in any toe-to-toe conventional fight. As Russia wages war in Ukraine, experts have described what would happen in a nuclear strike, which is unlikely. When Russia is defeated in Ukraine, look to Chechnya Ukrainian soldiers train outside Kyiv on Feb. 21. Since then, the simulation has received more than a million views. 30 Apr 2023 13:25:28 However if every nuclear weapon was detonated at the same time, this is what it'd look like. But it is now developing some key technologies, new fighting tactics and a brazen geopolitical strategy that is. Russias leadership would then warn that any attempt to retaliate would unleash the rest of the countrys nuclear weapons, killing millions more and destroying the U.S. as a military, political, and economic entity. The four-minute audiovisual piece called "Plan A", which was developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS), has seen renewed interest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Army deployments are part of a broader U.S. military effort to reassure NATO allies rattled by Russia's actions. Up goes the budget for digital technology, artificial intelligence and cyber. These very sophisticated air defense capabilities are not about ISIL they're about something else.". As U.S. officials watch that unfold, they are "clearly motivated by concerns that at least locally, Russia has the potential to generate superior forces," said David Ochmanek, a former Pentagon official who is now a defense analyst at the RAND Corp. And looming over the entire U.S.-Russian relationship are their nuclear arsenals. Explainer: What would a nuclear war look like? - SWI swissinfo.ch Did they look at how much in demand are Russian resources before the sanctioning Russia? Russia's invasion of Ukraine has, if nothing else, demonstrated that major wars can still happen despite the best efforts of the international community. At the same time, these statements (and unwise stunts such as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei) run the risk of triggering Chinese escalation. What Would Russia Look Like Today if World War II Never Happened? But while Russia's conventional forces are less impressive than its nuclear forces, there are specific conventional areas where the Russians excel among them aircraft, air defenses, submarines, and electronic warfare. "We see some very sophisticated air defenses going into those airfields, we see some very sophisticated air-to-air aircraft going into these airfields," Gen. Phillip Breedlove, chief of the U.S. European Command and also the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, said Sept. 28. At first, the war is between Western European countries and Russia but once all major cities have been bombed, the war turns between the US and Russia. NATO then retaliates with a single, tactical, nuclear air strike. The argument goes that Putin would employ a type of hybrid warfare perfected in Ukraine to rally ethnic Russian populations in the Baltic states to rise up in support with special operations forces the so-called "little green men.". That could include Iraq, the leadership of which has invited the Russians to assist in the fight against the Islamic State in that country. Hearst Magazine Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved. A 'concentrated' attack is needed to disrupt the stalemated war, Ben Barry said. Ukraine War / War With Russia: It's almost like NO ONE thought it through first before they launched this proxy war in Ukraine? The dynamic between the two states seems driven by impatience; an impatience in the North that the world still refuses to take it seriously despite its magnificent nuclear weapons, and an impatience in the South that a nation of great significance remains burdened by its inept and retrograde sibling. The Ukraine War Has Already Begun - and It's Unlike Any You've Seen Before The hybrid warfare developed and practiced by Russia over the past two decades relies - like in the Ukraine crisis - on propaganda, psychological warfare and cyberattacks as much as on conventional firepower It's not a desire to return to the Cold War.". But the gap has narrowed in recent years. Disputes between Athens and Ankara over energy exploration in the Aegean have driven the current tension, although the territorial disagreement underlying the argument have existed for decades. In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine, starting the largest clash in Europe since World War II. The Russian President made it clear that the western model of democracy and its way of dealing with conflicts in the region is not working," said Yury Barmin, a Moscow-based Russian expert on Mideast politics and Russian foreign policy. The problem is, with a nuclear power, you try to avoid a full-scale fighting.". After an initial burst of interest in the video, the view count didn't increase much until late February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and Putin made remarks alluding to the possible use of nuclear weapons, according to Glaser. .css-v1xtj3{display:block;font-family:FreightSansW01,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif;font-weight:100;margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}@media (any-hover: hover){.css-v1xtj3:hover{color:link-hover;}}@media(max-width: 48rem){.css-v1xtj3{font-size:1.1387rem;line-height:1.2;margin-bottom:1rem;margin-top:0.625rem;}}@media(min-width: 40.625rem){.css-v1xtj3{line-height:1.2;}}@media(min-width: 48rem){.css-v1xtj3{font-size:1.18581rem;line-height:1.2;margin-bottom:0.5rem;margin-top:0rem;}}@media(min-width: 64rem){.css-v1xtj3{font-size:1.23488rem;line-height:1.2;margin-top:0.9375rem;}}6 Tips for Installing Your New In-Ground Pool, The Future of Mobile Military Power May Be Nuclear, We Built a Cool Mid-Century Influenced Desk, How Lasers Will Soon Power U.S. Military Bases, South Korea Is Building an American Arsenal Ship, Theres an Anti-Universe Going Backward in Time, Why France Is Still a Formidable Nuclear Power, 3 Simple Ways to Remove Wax From a Candle Jar, What We Know About the Navys New Seabed Spy Sub. 04/23/2023 07:00 AM EDT. It remains unlikely that any of these disputes will develop into a global conflict, although the Ukraine War already has some aspects of great power war. It is important for cooler heads to prevail and to provide diplomatic off-ramps for this conflict.. The Russians don't have much in the way of long-range power projection capability," said Mark Galeotti, a Russian security expert at New York University.Moscow's military campaign in Syria is relying on supply lines that require air corridors through both Iranian and Iraqi air space. Ukraine: what would a Russian invasion actually look like? These are Join the news democracyWhere your votes decide the Top 100, The world has been reminded of a global war threat after Vladimir Putin claimed he isn't 'bluffing' and accused the West of engaging in 'nuclear blackmail. In total, across Europe, Asia, and the US the simulation says a total of 90 million people would be killed within the first few hours of conflict and that number does not include deaths from nuclear fallout or other long-term effects. ", "The United States and Russia are going for different things," Galeotti said. Dr. Farley is the author of "Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force" (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), "the Battleship Book" (Wildside, 2016), "Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology" (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently "Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages" (Lynne Rienner, 2023). This is what nuclear war between US and Russia would look like All nuclear powers implicitly operate by the principle of assured destructiona nuclear attack on them guarantees a devastating response. In that effort there are lots of paths to a real war between the United States and Russia. Russian has lined thousands of troops and large tank and artillery units along its Ukrainian border. But over time I think we would be able to degrade it. Russia running the U.N. Security Council is going about how you'd With hundreds of new aircraft, tanks and missiles rolling off assembly lines and Russian jets buzzing European skies under NATOs wary eye, it doesnt look like Russias economic woes have had any impact on the Kremlins ambitious military modernization program. Agustn Montaez, How Russia Could Use Chemical Weapons in Ukraine, Ukraine Will Pay $1 Million to Russian Defectors, How Biden Could Revamp Americas Nuclear Arsenal, Democrats Push for No-First-Use Nuclear Pledge, U.S. Airmen Accidentally Leak Top-Secret Nuke Info, Why the F/A-18 Hornet Is Such a Badass Plane, What You Need to Know About the An-225 Mriya, U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Amanda R. Gray, China Denies 'Remarkable' Expansion of Its Nukes, 6 Tips for Installing Your New In-Ground Pool, Your Privacy Choices: Opt Out of Sale/Targeted Ads, If the United States and Russia were to engage in direct air, land, and sea conflict, the risk of. Both countries also subscribe to a policy of assured destruction, meaning any attack on either nation would result in the attackers destruction. In our scenario, well look at a surprise nuclear first strike that leads to all-out war. China's Dong Feng 17, first revealed in 2019, carries a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) that can manoeuvre through the atmosphere with an almost unpredictable trajectory, making it hard to intercept. Russia Could Collapse Into 'New States' After Ukrainian - Newsweek War in Ukraine - CBS News Recent tests of US systems, by contrast, have not gone well. This Is What a Nuclear War Between the U.S. and Russia Could Look Like, U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. It's unclear who will take her place as the Pentagon's key policy maker for Russia-related issues. Kyle Mizokami is a writer on defense and security issues and has been at Popular Mechanics since 2015. Assured destruction is a powerful disincentive to using even just one nuclear weapon, let alone using hundreds in an apocalyptic attack. The quality of Russia's stealth aircraft is far weaker than those of the U.S., but Russia has cutting-edge anti-stealth systems, and also has invested heavily in robust surface-to-air missile systems and arrayed its forces domestically to protect its border regions. "We cannot stand by when the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a nation is flagrantly violated," Obama told the U.N. General Assembly in a major speech on Sept. 28. Yet right now, on the cusp of 2022, the Russian forces massing on Ukraine's border, while certainly inclusive of offensive cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, are mainly composed of conventional hardware, such as tanks, armoured vehicles and troops - the same sort of hardware that would be deployed if Moscow decided to roll back into the Baltic states, for example. President Biden speaks during the U.S. Conference of Mayors winter meeting in D.C. on Jan. 21. Under Article 5 of NATOs founding treaty, Washington has extended the protection of its nuclear umbrella to NATO nations, which means the U.S. would treat a nuclear attack on those countries in the same way it would an attack on American soil; in other words, it protects them by promising to retaliate in kind to any nuclear strikes on their territory. Worry about the immediacy of war between Taiwan and China has waned a bit in the past months, in large part because of China's catastrophic covid experience. However, escalation remains a concern. Russia views itself as a land-based power, exerting influence in a sphere expanding outward from its Eurasian heartland into Eastern Europe, Central Asia and possibly the Middle East and Pacific rim. Over the weekend, Russian . Another option for Russia, of course, is to shift to a conventional fight. (Eric Lee/BLOOMBERG) Branko Marcetic is a staff . In sum, the Russian military is not the equal of the U.S. military. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File). So is it all doom and gloom? But in a way, that doesn't matter, because Russia does not plan to send its forces all across the world's oceans. Before its weapon systems are destroyed, Russia fires missiles launched from silos, road-mobile vehicles, and submarines. There are between 30,000 and 35,000 Russian-backed fighters in Eastern Ukraine, about 9,000 of whom are coming solely from the Russian front, Muzhenko estimates. The biggest military danger here is unplanned escalation. Attempting a side-by-side comparisons of the U.S. and Russian militaries is a bit like comparing apples to oranges, many experts say; the Russians have distinctly different strategic goals, and their military structure reflects that. Photo Credit: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images. Kiev says it's desperate for more weaponry, but so far Washington has shown willingness to provide only nonlethal equipment. The arrival of these weapons in China's arsenal is now making Washington think twice about going to war to defend Taiwan if China does decide to invade it. Andrew Tilghman is the executive editor for Military Times. "In addition to the immediate death and suffering and economic and societal collapse, in the years following the war, the phenomenon of nuclear winter would exacerbate the catastrophe," he said, pointing to one study which found that more than five billion people could eventually die from a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. Many of the aspects of a major conflict between the West and say, Russia or China, have already been developed, rehearsed and deployed. The United Nations is accustomed to oddity, absurdity and a certain amount of hypocrisy. It is not clear . By FP Contributors. Putin's spokesman pointed on Tuesday to the Biden administration . "We have not fought wars the way they do in kind of an urban, mixed urban and nonurban setting with UAVs, with electronic jamming.". So far, the administration has pledged only "nonlethal aid" for training and gear such as Humvees, small drones and radar. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the coastal infrastructure that stretched from Kalingrad to Leningrad was lost to the newly independent Baltic states. During the defense's cross-examination of E. Jean Carroll, Trump's attorney asked the writer why she "did not scream" when she was "supposedly raped.". Unlike conventional war, a nuclear war is not something that happens out of the blue. According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. Here's what it might look like. It's logistically complex. Offensive cyber attacks, whether disruptive or predatory, have become a regular daily occurrence, something known as "sub-threshold warfare". NATO said earlier this week it had stepped back from a floated idea to reinforce the alliance's military presence in countries bordering Russia, preferring for now to suspend cooperation with Moscow and give more time to talks. The Russians recently announced plans for a naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean this fall, but did not specify exactly when ships would deploy to the region. Russia has announced successful tests of its Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, proclaiming that it can defeat any defences anywhere in the world. "We should be able to achieve our objectives and keep the Indo-Pacific, for example, free and open and prosperous into the future. The Chechen soldiers are clear they're in Ukraine to make up for around two centuries of Russian oppression of their mountainous and frequently mutinous homeland from Joseph Stalin's population deportation in the . In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. The secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure. A ceasefire in eastern Ukraine also appears to be holding, although each side remains wary, and local parliamentary elections set to take place Oct. 25 may be upended by pro-Russian separatists, who aim to hold their own elections. On Wednesday, Russian officials expressed openness to a peace agreement that would allow an independent Ukraine to maintain its own military as long as it committed to a "neutral status" akin to. At first glance, this may look like any other NATO training exercise, but think again. The core principle of NATO is its system of collective defence - this means if . Leaked papers reveal reality behind Ukraine war propaganda and it's That's reflected in the fact that Russia maintains a lone aircraft carrier while the U.S. Navy's 10-carrier fleet operates on a continuing global deployment cycle. Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota would receive at least 800 nuclear strikes between them. US staged 'limited' nuclear battle against Russia in war game Any attempt by the U.S. and its allies to infiltrate Russian air space "would not necessarily be easy," Schwartz said. She believes the solution is two things - close consultation and collaboration with allies and investment in the right places. "Hybrid warfare casts doubts about when there should be a military response, or whether this is a civilian issue that should be taken care of by local law enforcement," he said. Russia's increasingly aggressive posture has sparked a sweeping review among U.S. defense strategists of America's military policies and contingency plans in the event of a conflict with the former Soviet state. A crucial factor in this equation is Russia's alliance with Iran, another key Syrian ally. Wed 26 Apr 2023 09.14 EDT Last modified on Wed 26 Apr 2023 16.13 EDT. The willingness of the Biden administration to take risky rhetorical positions on the defense of Taiwan indicates that Washington has real concern over the prospects of a Chinese attack. And Russian officials have voiced support for Russian-speaking minorities, raising the specter of future agitation. All of this at a time when Russian forces are massing on Ukraine's borders, Moscow has been demanding Nato withdraw from some of its member states, and China is making ever louder noises about retaking Taiwan - by force if necessary. Ukraine war: Is there a stalemate - or is this the lull before the Ukraine Counter-Offensive Will Be Like a 'Big Bang,' Says Military Expert Although the real stakes of control over small slivers of territory in nearly uninhabitable mountain terrain remain elusive, neither China nor India have backed away from the conflict. "That's the basis of the sanctions that the United States and our partners imposed on Russia. On 16 November, Russia carried out a missile test in space, destroying one of its own satellites. Paula Bronstein for Foreign Policy. Hitler and Stalin carved up Poland in 1939, and after the war the Soviet Union annexed most of the Polish territory it grabbed in 1939, with . Photo Credit: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP. 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